September is understood for shaking international markets– from stocks and bonds to gold, history reveals that couple of properties leave the seasonal downturn that normally strikes this month. However there’s one outlier that’s consistently provided when whatever else stumbles: the U.S. dollar.
Money Is King In September: The Dollar’s Seasonal Strength Stands Alone
As September begins, financiers are taking threat off the table and moving to money.
While the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY has actually balanced a 1% decrease in September over the previous years, and gold has actually published a 1.81% typical drop over the previous ten years in the exact same month, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has actually silently shown to be a trustworthy entertainer.
In the last ten years, the DXY Index has actually gotten 0.91% usually in September, closing the month greater 7 out of 10 times– the very best efficiency for any month in the duration.
Returning twenty years, the pattern holds up. The dollar has actually provided a typical September favorable return of 0.50%, with a 60% winning rate, making it the third-best month for the U.S. Dollar Index after Might (up by 0.84%) and October (up by 0.52%).
This pattern recommends a seasonal rotation into money, typically driven by increased volatility, threat hostility, and decreased liquidity throughout markets.
| Year | Dollar Index efficiency in September |
|---|---|
| 2005 | 2.22% |
| 2006 | 1.08% |
| 2007 | -3.80% |
| 2008 | 2.67% |
| 2009 | -1.94% |
| 2010 | -5.39% |
| 2011 | 5.99% |
| 2012 | -1.57% |
| 2013 | -2.27% |
| 2014 | 3.85% |
| 2015 | 0.55% |
| 2016 | -0.58% |
| 2017 | 0.44% |
| 2018 | -0.01% |
| 2019 | 0.47% |
| 2020 | 1.89% |
| 2021 | 1.73% |
| 2022 | 3.14% |
| 2023 | 2.41% |
| 2024 | -0.96% |
| Typical (Last twenty years) | +0.50% |
| Typical (Last ten years) | +0.91% |
Could 2025 Be Any Various?
Up until now, 2025 has actually informed an extremely various story for the dollar.
The U.S. Dollar Index is down 9.6% year-to-date through Sept. 3, struck by tariff-related unpredictabilities and expectations over simpler Fed policy.
In August alone, the DXY moved 2.2%. However here’s where history gets intriguing:
In the previous twenty years, when the dollar had an unfavorable year-to-date efficiency by the end of August, September closed with gains in 4 cases, balancing a 0.52% return.
| Year | YTD Through August (%) | September (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 2006 | -6.80% | 1.08% |
| 2007 | -3.71% | -3.80% |
| 2011 | -6.33% | 5.99% |
| 2016 | -3.55% | -0.58% |
| 2017 | -10.76% | 0.44% |
| 2020 | -3.59% | 1.89% |
| 2024 | -0.96% | -0.96% |
A lot more appealing is the short-term bounce that typically follows a weak August for the greenback.
When the dollar decreased in August, 4 Septembers ended in the green, balancing a 0.18% gain in general.
| Year | August (%) | September (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 2005 | -1.98% | 2.22% |
| 2006 | -0.29% | 1.08% |
| 2009 | -0.22% | -1.94% |
| 2012 | -1.73% | -1.57% |
| 2015 | -1.55% | 0.55% |
| 2020 | -1.29% | 1.89% |
| 2024 | -2.19% | -0.96% |
These historic rebounds recommend that weak point in August does not always bleed into September. In truth, it typically reverses.
Bottom Line
While markets brace for turbulence– and gold, equities, and bonds flash seasonal cautions– the dollar silently ends up being September’s many constant entertainer.
With the DXY down dramatically in 2025, the conditions might remain in location for yet another September resurgence.
Money, as it ends up, truly is king in September.
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