The gas market goes into Week 42 with a robust storage gain, as reserves are anticipated to climb up 87 BCF throughout Week 41 (October 6-12), reaching 3,728 BCF and surpassing in 2015. The NGX25 agreement dips listed below its 10-day typical in the middle of increased volatility driven by warm weather condition and high production, while 2026 winter season agreements remain above the interquartile variety. Moderate conditions, with HDD+CDD listed below historic averages, reduce need, and a below-average supply-demand space signals prospective oversupply.
Existing gas costs compared to rate dispersion 10 days before expiration by month given that 2010
Due to warm weather condition and high production, the NGX25 agreement is trading listed below its 10-day average and revealing increased volatility throughout this duration. Costs for 2026 winter season agreements stay above the ceiling of the interquartile variety.
Forward curve compared to 2020-2025
The shape of the forward curve in 2025 reveals a constant merging and is even closer to the setups taped in 2023 and 2024 for similar dates. This pattern is especially obvious in agreements with shipment in 3 years or more, where costs are progressively assembling towards historic levels.
Existing stocks and projection for next week compared to 2019-2024
According to the projection for week 41 (October 6-12), gas reserves in underground storage centers will increase by +87 BCF, reaching 3728 BCF, which goes beyond the figure for the exact same duration in 2015. High production volumes and moderate climate condition drive the development in reserves.
14-day moving amount HDD+CDD based upon present NOAA information and projection for the next 2 weeks compared to 1994-2024
The HDD+CDD built up over 2 week for all areas stays listed below the historic averages for 1994– 2024, and even considering the projection for the next 2 weeks, no considerable variance from the present pattern of moderate weather condition is anticipated.
14-day moving amount of HDD+CDD based upon present NOAA information and projection for the next 2 weeks compared to 1994-2024 by area
In all areas other than WS CENTRAL and PACIFIC, the 14-day cumulative HDD+CDD stays listed below the historic average for 1994– 2024, and the projection for the next 2 weeks does not recommend a departure from the present moderate weather condition pattern.
Weekly overall supply/demand distinction compared to 2014-2024
Today, the distinction in between supply and need in 2025 is listed below the typical worths for 2014– 2024, showing weaker need or excess supply.
Variety of days for shipment from storage facilities
The chart reveals the variety of days of supply from storage centers alone, based upon present usage levels. By early October 2025, reserves will last for around 35 days, which is listed below the lower limitation of the interquartile variety. With such moderate reserves, even small disturbances in production or spikes in need might trigger sharp rate responses, particularly in late winter season and early spring.
Abnormalities in weather condition (HDD+CDD) and essential aspects
In general, essential aspects and weather condition abnormalities are within the anticipated variety, without any systemic variances. We do not anticipate considerable rate variances in the present expiration duration unless there are transformations in supply and need due to weather, production, or export aspects.
This analysis was performed in cooperation with Anastasia Volkova, expert of LSE
Benzinga Disclaimer: This short article is from an overdue external factor. It does not represent Benzinga’s reporting and has actually not been modified for material or precision.