Secret takeaways:
-
Bitcoin’s bearish MACD cross and swallowing up candle light on the three-week chart signal a cycle top.
-
Market experts recommend that 558 days post-2024 cutting in half suggest the Bitcoin bull cycle’s top impends.
-
Other experts state BTC cost still has space to run, with $180,000 still in the cards.
Bitcoin (BTC) cost traded 3% lower on Thursday and 13% listed below its $126,000 all-time high reached on Oct. 6, with some traders recommending that this level might have marked the cycle top for BTC.
Bitcoin technicals recommend “leading remains in”
Bitcoin’s cost action appears to have actually verified a “bearish MACD crossover,” according to one crypto expert, who recommends this might signify completion of the BTC bull run based upon historic patterns.
Related: Fed signals ‘end of QT’: What does it suggest for Bitcoin cost?
There is a “pending bearish MACD crossover on Bitcoin’s 3-week chart,” expert Jesse Olson stated in an X post on Wednesday, including:
” The pie chart likewise reveals longer-term bearish divergence.”
The crossover was verified once the moving typical merging indication (MACD) (blue wave)– a technical indication utilized by traders to recognize pattern modifications and momentum shifts– moved listed below the signal line (orange wave), as displayed in the chart below.
Keep in mind that the last 2 times MACD sent this bearish signal were at the height of the 2017 and 2021 bull cycles, marking the top for Bitcoin.
The very same three-week chart reveals the look of a “bearish swallowing up candle light” comparable to the ones seen at the peak of the 2017 and 2021 bull cycles.
These and “numerous other cautions recommend that the top remains in,” Jesse Olson stated in another post on Thursday.
These consist of decreasing network activity, indicating decreased onchain need. Information from Nansen exposes that the variety of day-to-day active addresses on the Bitcoin network reduced by 30% in October, from 632,915 to 447,225.
A minimizing variety of day-to-day active addresses signals subsiding network engagement and less user need, typically preceding cost corrections or extended combination.
Bitcoin’s impending cycle peak
Pseudonymous trader and financier Mister Crypto backed the cycle leading thesis with the assertion that Bitcoin has actually reached a point where it “traditionally peaks out,” based upon its four-year halving cycle.
Recalling at previous Bitcoin halving cycles in 2012 and 2016, there’s certainly a comparable pattern. The cost slowly constructs momentum, usually reaching its peak in between 518 and 580 days after the cutting in half occasion, as shown in the chart below.
It has actually been 558 days given that the 2024 Bitcoin halving, which puts the BTC market within +40 days of the historic 518-580 day peak window.
” We are best around the time where Bitcoin traditionally peaks out,” Mister Crypto stated in an X post, asking:
” Will this time be various?”
Fellow expert CryptoBird stated Bitcoin might just have a couple of days of cost growth left in the cycle, specifically if it follows historic patterns based upon previous halvings.
In his most current Bitcoin analysis, CryptoBird stated Bitcoin is “combining before a surge and the top window is open.”
Last leg waiting space.
BTC is rangebound at $112K, ETFs increasing, fear fading. It’s combining before surge and top window is open.
You’re not all set for what’s coming.
( Thread) pic.twitter.com/g35tkf9tG2
— CRYPTO IRB (@crypto_birb) October 29, 2025
As Cointelegraph reported, some experts, such as BitMEX’s Arthur Hayes, state that the Bitcoin four-year cycle is dead, arguing that rates are presently driven by financial policy and liquidity, instead of halvings.
Others see a reducing halving effect, arguing that a favorable rate of interest cycle, institutional adoption through ETFs and Bitcoin treasury business and maturation as a traditional property, which might cause more upside in 2026 for Bitcoin.
Is Bitcoin’s advantage truly over?
Apart from those who declare that the Bitcoin four-year cycle no longer identifies the period of the bull run, others think that BTC still has more space to run based upon technical indications.
Bitcoin has actually “formed a greater low and the variety stays undamaged,” stated expert Jelle, describing BTC’s cost action in the day-to-day timespan.
” Recover the $116K area, and the enjoyable resumes.”
Fellow expert Mags stated Bitcoin is trading within a “bullish loudspeaker pattern” that has actually traditionally caused an advantage breakout.
” A huge breakout is packing.”
#Bitcoin – Every bullish pattern on BTC has actually caused an advantage breakout in the past.
Today cost is forming a bullish loudspeaker pattern.
A huge breakout is packing. pic.twitter.com/45z3WvRwKa
— Mags (@thescalpingpro) October 30, 2025
As Cointelegraph reported, the Bitcoin Mayer Several revealed that BTC stays closer to “oversold” at present levels, recommending that the $180,000 target is still in play.
This short article does not consist of financial investment guidance or suggestions. Every financial investment and trading relocation includes threat, and readers ought to perform their own research study when deciding.