XRP (XRP) has actually lost more than 40% considering that striking a multi-year high near $3.40 in January, and onchain information recommends the sag might deepen in the weeks ahead.
” Rejection” preceding previous 75-90% XRP crashes is back
XRP’s Net Latent Profit/Loss (NUPL) information from Glassnode recommends the token might be heading for another extended decline.
The metric, which evaluates the aggregate latent gains or losses of XRP holders, has actually traditionally functioned as a reputable barometer of possible pattern turnarounds. In previous market cycles, NUPL has actually peaked in the so-called “ecstasy” zone right before significant rate tops.
In 2018, XRP overlooked $3.00 as NUPL signified severe optimism, just to collapse 90% to listed below $0.30 as belief degraded through “rejection” and into “capitulation.”
XRP NUPL historic efficiency chart. Source: Glassnode
A comparable pattern played out in 2021 when XRP struck $1.96 before moving 75% to $0.50 in the middle of a sharp shift from ecstasy to fear.
Since March 2025, XRP’s NUPL has as soon as again went into the “rejection” zone, with the rate trading around $2.50 following a strong rally. If the pattern holds, XRP might deal with additional disadvantages similar to the bearishness in 2018 and 2021.
XRP/USD weekly rate chart. Source: TradingView
XRP now deals with comparable dangers, trading sideways in between $1.80 and $3.40, following a blistering 585% rally in simply 2 months.
The rally sped up after pro-crypto prospect Donald Trump won the United States governmental election, while speculation grew around Ripple’s possible success in its SEC claim and the possible approval of an area XRP ETF in 2025.
Related: SEC dropping XRP case was ‘priced in’ considering that Trump’s election: Experts
As an outcome of these encouraging principles, some traders stated XRP’s continuous combination might ultimately result in a breakout. That consists of market expert Stellar Babe, who expects XRP’s rate to get 450%.
Technical fractal recommends XRP is peaking
XRP’s weekly chart recommends a bearish fractal from 2021 might be unfolding once again.
In both 2021 and 2025, the XRP rate formed a regional top while the RSI printed a lower high, indicating bearish divergence and weakening upside momentum.
XRP/USD weekly rate chart. Source: TradingView
Back in 2021, that divergence preceded an 85.50% sell-off that broke listed below the 50-week (the red wave) and 200-week (the blue wave) rapid moving averages (EMA) supports.
In 2025, XRP has actually once again revealed a comparable RSI divergence, followed by a 40%- plus decrease from its current highs. It now runs the risk of a prolonged decrease towards the 50-week EMA at around $1.58, down about 21.6% from the present rate levels by June.
If the correction deepens and breaks listed below the 50-week EMA assistance, history recommends XRP might move even more towards the 200-week EMA around $0.87, or about 60% from the present rate levels.
This short article does not consist of financial investment suggestions or suggestions. Every financial investment and trading relocation includes threat, and readers ought to perform their own research study when deciding.