Gas got in Week 50 with a historical shift, as the EIA reports a record 183 BCF storage withdrawal for Week 49 (December 5), squashing the 5-year typical draw of -72 BCF and leaving stocks at 3,740 BCF-34 BCF listed below 2024 however still 56 BCF above the average. Winter and peak LNG exports previously drove January futures above $5/MMBtu, however softening projections for mid-December have actually activated profit-taking, relieving near-term costs while 2026-27 agreements hold above the interquartile variety.
Existing LNG costs compared to rate dispersion 10 days before expiration by month given that 2010
Recently, winter and record LNG streams offered strong assistance for costs. The scenario has actually now progressed, with indications of a correction due to profit-taking and a softening of weather report for the 2nd half of December. Nevertheless, essential motorists (an extended cold spell in essential areas, peak LNG exports, and growing need from the energy sector) stay in location and are keeping 2026 and 2027 agreement costs above the interquartile variety.
Forward curve compared to 2020-2025
The shape of the 2025 forward curve on close-by agreements is as soon as again approaching the 2023– 2024 varieties. In spite of high volatility on close-by agreements, agreements with shipment in 2 years and beyond continue to reveal clear rate stabilization at traditionally steady levels.
Existing LNG stocks and projection for next week compared to 2020-2024
According to the projection for week 49 (EIA report dated December 5), gas reserves in underground storage centers will reduce by a record 183 BCF, which is 111 BCF listed below the average for the previous 5 years. At the exact same time, reserves will reach 3,740 BCF, which is 34 BCF lower than in 2024, however 56 BCF greater than the five-year average.
HDD+CDD based upon present NOAA information and projection for the next 2 weeks compared to 1994-2024
Presently, the overall HDD + CDD (heating and cooling degree days) indications for all weather areas of the United States are within the moderate variety relative to the 30-year environment standard. According to meteorological design projections, degree days are anticipated to increase after December 11, reaching optimum levels by December 14-15, after which they will start to decrease, and by December 17-19, worths might fall listed below seasonal standards.
HDD+CDD based upon present NOAA information and projection compared to 1994-2024 by area
Since December 10, another peak in degree days is anticipated in the coming week, with worths going beyond the upper interquartile variety in the main areas of EN, ES, WN, WS, and South Atlantic. After December 18, the weather condition is anticipated to support and go back to typical levels and listed below.
Daily supply/demand distinction compared to 2014-2024
On December 10, the distinction in between supply and need in 2025 decreases after irregular development and approaches the upper interquartile variety for 2014– 2024.
Variety of days for shipment from storage facilities
The chart reveals the variety of days of supply based exclusively on storage reserves, at present usage levels. Since December 10, reserves suffice for roughly 27 days, which is 3 days less than in 2024, 7 days listed below the average, and at the lower end of the 10-year variety. With this level of reserves and usage, even small interruptions in production or spikes in need might trigger sharp rate responses, particularly in late winter season and early spring.
Filling level of European storage centers
The total fill rate of European gas storage centers since December 10 continues to decrease and stands at 71.5% (-4.4% over the week), which is 10.5% listed below the typical fill rate and 10% lower than in 2015.
Electrical energy generation by source
Compared to recently, gas generation in the US48 energy balance was up to 38.4% of the overall (-5% over the week) on December 10, 2025. The share of nuclear generation stays around 18-19% and is listed below the 5-year low. The share of coal generation has actually grown and stays at approximately 19-20%. Share of wind (11.3%) and solar (4.0%) has actually increased a little compared to recently.
* This analysis was performed in cooperation with Anastasia Volkova, expert of LSE
Benzinga Disclaimer: This short article is from an unsettled external factor. It does not represent Benzinga’s reporting and has actually not been modified for material or precision.