President Donald Trump informed press reporters Thursday he will not send out soldiers to the Middle East and stated he purchased Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to stop striking Iranian energy facilities.
The remarks followed a quick over night escalation: Israel struck Iran’s South Pars gas field on Wednesday, and Iran struck back with rockets targeting LNG centers in Qatar, refineries in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, and gas facilities in the UAE.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth validated the U.S. has actually struck over 7,000 targets throughout Iran and sunk more than 120 Iranian ships, even as Trump preserved he will not release ground forces.
Iran’s method seems attrition: keep the Strait shut, spread out the discomfort throughout Gulf allies, and await the financial pressure to require Washington to the table.
What Forecast Markets State
Polymarket’s U.S.-Iran ceasefire market, with $22.2 million in volume, provides simply 6% chances of an offer by March 31. That increases to 31% by end of April, and 52% by the end of June.
A different agreement on whether U.S. forces will go into Iran was pricing 18% chances before March 31, 49% before April 30 and 65% before year-end.
Check out together, the 2 markets paint an image: a ceasefire is months away at best, and with a fifth of international oil supply, fertilizer feedstocks and industrial shipping bottlenecked at the Strait of Hormuz, traders are progressively pricing in the possibility that Trump’s “no soldiers” position does not make it through the financial damage of an extended blockade.
The Energy Trade
Brent crude struck $115 Thursday before settling around $109, up 50% because the war started Feb. 28. It was at $69 in early February.
The heading numbers might be downplaying the damage. U.S. crude is trading at a $20-plus discount rate to Brent, among the biggest spaces on record, while physical crude in Oman is supposedly above $150 a barrel. European gas leapt another 30% Thursday. Experts at The Kobeissi Letter called it what might be the biggest energy crisis in history.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent drifted lifting sanctions on Iranian oil tankers and tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Neither moved rates. The Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for a fifth of international oil trade, stays efficiently shut.
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