However one crucial signal isn’t lining up.
Volatility Isn’t Backing The Call
The Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX– commonly viewed as Wall Street’s “worry gauge”– is still hovering around the mid-20s, with a current print near 24– 27.
For context, more steady market environments normally see the VIX settle closer to the mid-teens. Raised readings recommend financiers are still pricing in significant unpredictability over the next thirty days.
Simply put, the marketplace might be supporting– however it isn’t unwinded.
What A Real Bottom Typically Appears Like
Historically, resilient market bottoms tend to line up with a clear pattern in volatility.
Throughout the 2008 monetary crisis and the 2020 COVID selloff, the VIX rose to severe levels– above 80– before falling dramatically as markets supported.
Even in the 2022 drawdown, rallies gotten traction as volatility trended lower towards the low-20s and high-teens.
That series matters.
Bottoms aren’t almost cost– they have to do with volatility peaking and after that compressing.
With the VIX still hovering in the mid-20s, that 2nd stage does not appear totally in location yet.
Conviction Fulfills Unpredictability
Yardeni’s call might eventually show best– markets frequently turn before the information totally clears.
However with volatility still raised and cost action staying unequal, the existing setup looks more like a shift stage than a validated bottom.
In the meantime, the message from the marketplace is clear: the flooring might be forming– however it isn’t settled.
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